Peer-reviewed

Published Research

★ Job Market Paper

Peace Dividends: Criminal Governance, Rational Violence, and Economic Development

American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/S0003055425101354

Journal Accepted version
Shows that a stable, hegemonic drug-trafficking organization generates measurable improvements in local employment and firm creation in peripheral Brazilian neighborhoods. A rational and stable regime of criminal governance provided by a drug-trafficking organization promotes economic development in regions under-served by state services. The presence of an hegemonic criminal organization allows for more regular and predictable patterns of governance, and the organization's internal structure plays a key role in shaping the relationship between criminals, the population, and the state.

Improving Police Management Boosts Economic Development: Evidence from Brazil

World Development doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107345

Journal Accepted version (SSRN)

When Elections Empower Crime: Political Protection and Milícia Expansion in Rio de Janeiro

Latin American Politics and Society · With Isabella C. Montini · doi:10.1017/lap.2025.10026

Journal Accepted version

Police Autonomy, Data-Driven Strategies, and Violence: Evidence from Brazil's Policing Reform

Journal of Development Economics · With Alberto Kopittke and Rafael Parfitt · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103603

Journal Pre-print (SSRN)

The Cross-Border Spillover Effects of Cannabis Regulation in South America

Journal of Quantitative Criminology · 2025 · With Bruno de Assis, Giovanni di Pietra, and Rafael Parfitt · doi:10.1007/s10940-025-09603-z

Journal Accepted version

Enxugando Gelo: Apresentando os Microdados das Apreensões de Drogas no Sul do Brasil

Revista Brasileira de Segurança Pública · 2025 · v.19, n.2, p.122–143 · doi:10.31060/rbsp.2025.v19.n2.2034

Journal

PhD Dissertation

Descanse o seu gatilho: illegal markets' hegemony and its peace dividends

FGV-EAESP · February 2024 · Committee: Ciro Biderman (chair), Gabriel Feltran, Joana Monteiro, Jessie Trudeau

Investigates the role of criminal governance in promoting economic development. Demonstrates that a rational and stable regime of criminal governance by a drug-trafficking organization improves jobs and firms in peripheral regions. The hegemony of a single organized crime group in a large metropolitan area is associated with a reduction in homicides and serious interpersonal violence. The organization's internal structure plays a key role in shaping the relationship between criminals, the population, and the state.

Criminal GovernanceEconomic DevelopmentHomicide Impact EvaluationRAISGeo-processing

FGV Library